the truth about earthquake predictions

The Truth About Earthquake Predictions

Earthquake prediction is concerned with specifying the location, magnitude and time of future earthquakes within some confidence limits. Prediction of earthquakes that cause massive destruction of life and infrastructure is of particular importance.

Earthquake prediction is not well-developed science. There are no successful predictions that have been discovered from physical principles. Different research focuses on different things. Some focus on empirical analysis, identifying precursors to earthquakes, identifying geophysical trends or seismicity patterns that might precede enormous earthquakes.

There are categories of methods used to predict earthquakes. Precursors include: radon emissions, animal behavior, and electromagnetic variations. Trends that can be used to predict earthquakes are seismic gaps, seismic patterns, and elastic rebound.


Why Earthquake Predictions Are Not Likely To Be True
The idea of predicting earthquakes at a particular location and time is often tantalizing. It is not rooted in proven science. So far, no scientist has been able to discover a signal for the occurrence of earthquakes. There is no sign that people have identified or can guarantee the occurrence of an earthquake. Detection of vibrations can be done just before an earthquake hit. However, people do not get enough time to escape.


Earthquake Predictions
Some conducted earthquake predictions have been right while most have been wrong. One famous earthquake prediction was done around Central California; the earthquake was to happen along San Andreas Fault. Significant earthquakes had occurred in that area at an average of 22 years. Scientists forecast a ninety-five percent probability of another earthquake occurring between 1988 and 1993. The prediction was wrong since the quake that took place in the area happened around 2004.

Advancements are expected in the 2016 earthquake predictions. New study has shown that there is a high probability of earthquakes going on in different parts of California. These probabilities are as a result of models combining information from earthquake geology, seismology and, geodesy. There is a 99 percent likelihood of California earthquakes occurring in the next thirty years.

Haicheng earthquake was a successful prediction. Chinese authorities used seismic activities to predict the earthquake in 1974. People evacuated their homes; construction of outdoor structures was done to show movies outside the houses. About 300 out of 1.6 million people died when the earthquake happened in 1975. Most of the forecasts of this earthquake showed that it might occur along San Andreas Fault.


Several estimates were correct while some were wrong. In a real sense, only forecasts were done, not predictions. Iben Browning’s claim to predict the earthquake has been rejected. Prediction of earthquakes remains controversial up to date.


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